Many companies assess geopolitical risks using price indicators: oil price, gas price, freight rates. This is understandable – but incomplete. Because the real operational challenge often arises earlier: through declining predictability.

The IEA estimates oil transit through Hormuz at around 20 mb/d, classifying it as about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. For LNG, the EIA points out that in 2024, around 20% of global LNG trade will transit through Hormuz, primarily from Qatar. Even the possibility of disruptions can be enough to trigger security measures, detours, delays, and additional costs.

Why does this affect your ability to deliver?

Because supply chains are usually optimized for stable lead times. Low inventories, few suppliers, tightly scheduled production: efficient – as long as variance remains small. If variance increases, the systems collapse: ETAs become unreliable, planning becomes volatile, express solutions become more frequent, and the organization pays with stress, costs, and loss of service.

Added to this is the security dimension: UKMTO points to increased activity and possible electronic interference in the region, among other things. The IMO also documents serious security incidents and emphasizes the impact on seafarers in the region. This is not just a “market issue,” but also an operational and humanitarian issue.

What is the most effective response?

From HSC’s perspective: don’t “optimize” first, stabilize first. HSC is not a standard consulting firm, but a project stabilizer with leadership and lean DNA. We bring order to complexity, stabilize execution, and then improve sustainably – with clear responsibility, pragmatic standards, and measurable impact.

Three measures that have proven themselves in practice:

1. Exposure mapping with operational consequences

Creates a prioritized bottleneck list within 48 hours: critical materials, critical suppliers, critical customer orders. Supplemented by indirect dependencies (energy/gas-intensive preliminary products). Goal: enable decisions, not generate documentation.

2. Control Tower light – a daily decision cycle

Introduces a 15-minute daily cycle (logistics, purchasing, production, sales, quality) . One page is enough: bottlenecks today, risks tomorrow, decisions now. Each decision is assigned an owner and a deadline.

3. Prepare substitution & dual sourcing in advance

Define technical alternatives, approval guidelines, and testing strategies before an emergency arises. This prevents quality/engineering from becoming an unwanted bottleneck – and reduces ad hoc decisions made under time pressure.

To ensure that this stabilization does not turn into actionism, you need KPIs:

• OTIF (especially A customers)
• Lead time variance (dispersion)
• Days of cover (critical materials)
• ETA hit rate

And you need honesty about trade-offs:

Buffers tie up capital. Diversification increases complexity. Re-routing can increase delivery times and emissions. But these costs are controllable – unlike chaotic delivery failures.

The final question is not whether Hormuz is “shaky.” The final question is: How quickly can you switch your supply chain from efficiency mode to stability mode – without burning people out and losing customers?