The year 2026 is described in many debates as an energy problem. Oil prices, corridor risks, geopolitical escalation, sensitive markets. All of this is real. But as an explanation for operational instability, it often falls short. Because companies rarely fail directly because of a headline. They fail more often because of how slowly, unclearly, or…
The reflex is understandable: When the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran escalates, companies first look at the price of oil. But this view is too narrow. For geopolitical escalation rarely affects supply chains solely through energy prices. It affects networks, decisions, and the ability to ensure operational stability amid uncertainty. The Strait of…
Many companies assess geopolitical risks using price indicators: oil price, gas price, freight rates. This is understandable – but incomplete. Because the real operational challenge often arises earlier: through declining predictability. The IEA estimates oil transit through Hormuz at around 20 mb/d, classifying it as about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. For LNG,…